And so the end of another year. In last year's prognostication column, I predicted that the malicious software and spam situation would get worse, which it has. I speculated whether Microsoft Vista would be released, and it wasn't. I commented on the rise of copy protection (Digital Rights Management) for music and films, and that has certainly continued; but the number of incompatible DRM systems continues to be an issue - a song you buy from iTunes can't be played on a Zune, and so on. I also predicted the "Activation" type of program copy protection, and that use has become almost common for expensive programs in 2006.
I predicted correctly that the Linux OS would not increase in popularity, but that the Apple Mac would start to become more popular. I expressed my doubts about Microsoft making any inroad into getting a PC as the center of your entertainment system (Windows Media Edition), and this also fizzled during 2006. But Microsoft has incorporated much of WME into Vista, so expect MS to tilt at that windmill again in 2007.
I felt that LCD TV prices would plummet, but didn't see plasma as a lower cost alternative. Now LCDs dominate the smaller size TV market and plasmas the bigger units. This split will remain in 2007 and prices will continue to fall. On the other hand, I don't see a resolution of the Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD controversy in 2007. I read recently that the manufacturers and studios have been very disappointed with the dismal sales of these items in the 2006 holiday season (duh!), but no plan to rectify that is in the offing. I doubt you will buy high definition DVDs in 2007.
I didn't predict fully the continued megapixel wars in digital cameras. The common cameras are now 6 to 8 megapixels, with 10 megapixels being the current target to buy. At that resolution, digital photos are as detailed as film, and the entire film camera industry is dying as we speak. No significant film cameras or equipment were announced in 2006 to my knowledge, and the makers of ancillary products such as the film itself, photo paper, lens filters, etc. are starting to abandon the marketplace. This will continue in 2007.
I was surprised with the move to put personal information on the Internet. At first it was blogs, with most of those just personal diatribes and musings that weren't worth much. But joining blogs in 2006 were such services as Youtube and Myspace. I am not sure what drives people to post photos of themselves or videos of their deeds or imaginings on the Internet, but most of that stuff is just trash. Did you ever look at any Youtube videos? How many videos of somebody flossing their teeth do we need? Zero? And then people comment on the stuff! It's like the old Gong Show on steroids. Anyhow, expect this trend to continue in 2007.
Another interesting trend was that hard drives have become so huge and cheap. The technology keeps breaking new ground, with 750 gigabyte hard drives now available, and terabyte drives on their way. More capacity that the average person needs forever (well, maybe forever) unless you store a lot of video.
So, what to expect for 2007? Well, Vista will finally be here, and let's face it - your next PC will have Vista so get used to it. PC prices will go up after Vista arrives due to the higher cost of Vista itself and its increased hardware requirements. But PC prices are very good right now as manufacturers drop prices to purge out existing non-Vista stock. If you buy, make sure you get an upgrade certificate.
Digital cameras may finally plateau at 10 megapixels, but I am not sure. Expect to see more emphasis on extras such as image stabilization, automatic red-eye reduction, etc.
You will also see much more Internet online program content. You can already access services on the Internet such as the standard office tools (word processing, spreadsheets, etc.) and utilities such as virus and spyware scanning. This trend will continue, even though cheap "Internet only" machines have never proved cost-effective. Things are coming full circle - it's just like the dumb terminals we had connected to mainframes back in the 70's.
I expect 2007 is going to be a good year for the computer and electronics industries in general, and it is certainly going to make life here at BSC interesting!
(Bob Seidel is a local computer consultant in the Southport - Oak Island area. You can visit his Website at www.bobseidel.com or e-mail questions or column ideas to him at bsc@bobseidel.com. For specific inquiries, please call Bob Seidel Consulting, LLC at 278-1007.)