Not with a bang, but with a whimper. The CD format is about to quietly expire.
I remember back in the "old" days (the late '70s!) when all we had was floppy disks. My first floppy disk computer, the TRS-80, had 5.25" floppy disks that only held 90KB - right, Kilobytes! Later diskettes in the IBM PC held 320KB; the first IBM PC actually started out at 160KB but that was quickly upgraded. With the PS/2 product line, IBM introduced the 1.44MB diskettes which remained the standard for many years.
Programs were distributed on diskettes, as that was the only portable medium that was available. But some large programs could take a dozen or more diskettes to load! I remember installing one of the first versions of Windows that way.
I also did backups on diskette, and I had two sets of about 50 diskettes each - a laborious task to be done each week.
But as hard drives got bigger and bigger, and programs got bigger and bigger, the old diskette couldn't do the job. The technology to the rescue was CDs. In a very short period of time, program manufacturers switched from distribution on diskettes to CDs, cutting their production costs dramatically and easing our installation efforts.
It wasn't until writable CDs and re-writable CDs came along that we could use them for backup and data transfer. But CD writing is still awkward, and you can't use them as you would a diskette. (Actually, you can - but the technique is terribly slow and not always fully compatible with other PCs).
The next backup technologies on the horizon were the USB "thumb" drive, or external USB hard drives. Either technique works well for backup purposes and can easily be re-used. Thus CD use for backups is starting to decline. I actually prefer CD backups myself because of their permanence, but they are "only" 700MB - not enough now!
The penultimate bastion of CD usage is for program distribution. But now programs have increased in size yet again, and many new programs are coming out on DVD only. The latest video editor I use is an example, but more importantly the upcoming Windows Vista will be distributed on DVD only.
The final bastion of CDs is of course for music. With the popularity of videos for music, a major segment of that market is already on DVDs. And since regular music CDs don't support 5.1 sound, they are already technologically obsolete.
But the music industry is still holding on, because they can't figure out how to price music DVDs. Take those expensive CD boxed sets that people buy these days for terribly high prices - if that content (and more) could be put on one DVD, where is the profit potential for the music industry? Also nipping at the CDs heels is online music stores - very soon the traditional music store will disappear, and music CDs with them.
So, say goodbye to the old CD - it was great while it lasted, but it's time to move on. And, by the way, make sure your PC has a DVD reader/writer; there was a case on my video editor's public user forum the other day when a user was having trouble installing the latest version of the program. After a lot of help and questions from the forum, it finally came out that her PC only had a CD drive which, of course, doesn't read DVDs! Don't make that mistake…
(Bob Seidel is a local computer consultant in the Southport - Oak Island area. You can visit his Website at www.bobseidel.com or e-mail questions or column ideas to him at bsc@bobseidel.com. For specific inquiries, please call Bob Seidel Consulting, LLC at 278-1007.)