Writing a column the day after staying up to watch Dick Clark usher in the New Year is not a good idea. For those who didn't tune in, Dick looked really terrible. He had a bad stroke in 2004 and missed New Year's Eve 2005 entirely. I was never a fan, but still wish his recovery goes well. It took real guts for him to appear this year. Now to the column, So, let's get some of the obvious stuff out of the way first. Is the spam and spyware situation going to get any better? No! Worse? Yes! Is PC software going to get any easier to use? No! Is Microsoft going to release its next version of Windows, called Vista? Probably not. Should you buy it if it DOES come out? Definitely not yet.
Copy protection of intellectual property - CDs, DVDs, PC programs, etc. - will continue its inexorable march. The only setback will be the fallout from the recent Sony fiasco, which put copy protection of CDs back at least six months. But the news is that new PC hardware (drives, storage devices, etc.) will not allow copying, and the software that bypasses these restrictions (having gone underground in 2005) will disappear entirely in 2006. They are being heavily prosecuted (or IS it persecuted?) Most programs will use Activation-type copy protection, and that is proving very effective. I mistakenly installed Microsoft Office for a client recently and unknown to us the software had been previously installed on another PC - immediate reject!
So start expecting to pay in-full for your music or movies again - not that you ever cheated - rite? If the "labels" can prosecute a little old lady in Wappingers Creek NY, they can get to anybody.
On the alternate OS scene, Linux will make no further inroads into the desktop environment, and will probably lose ground. Apple MACs, on the other hand, will probably continue to increase their share, aided by Apple switching to Intel processors and the success of the iPod.
Microsoft is going to mount a renewed push for Media Center PCs in everybody's living room, but this will end, once again, in failure. If or when the high-end TV manufacturers and receiver manufacturers integrate PCs into their boxes, Media Center might - just might - succeed. But don't count on it. In other words, Dell can't market a Media Center PC, but Sony or Samsung or Onkyo might be able to.
Speaking of TVs, LCD TV prices should continue to fall. Samsung and Phillips are starting up new production lines with much higher capacity and quality (i.e. yield). This will drive prices down. Too bad I prefer the plasma technology myself - I don't see plasma prices coming down as steeply.
Anti-virus and anti-spyware programs seem to be getting worse: harder to use and more unstable. More on this in another column soon, but I think the problem is due to the fact that the software makers are trying so hard to keep up with the bad guys that their software is bursting at the seams. Expect to feel less protected in 2006, not more.
Digital cameras: big plateau here. New cameras as so small and easy to use that there just won't be any significant change in 2006. It would be nice if there were an improvement in the users themselves, but I don't see this happening. Most people I know are still point-and-shooters, who just want a snap of the grandkids and don't want to take the time to learn the hobby. SLR body and lens prices may come down a bit, but not much. But they will be impacted by the same "point-and-shoot" mentality and thus still not major players, revenue-wise.
If I think of anything more, I will put it in subsequent columns. On the spike: some PC New Year's Resolutions, and an up-to-date look at the anti-virus and firewall products. Wishing you all a happy and healthy New Year!
(Bob Seidel is a local computer consultant in the Southport - Oak Island area. You can visit his Website at www.bobseidel.com or e-mail questions or column ideas to him at bsc@bobseidel.com. For specific inquiries, please call Bob Seidel Consulting, LLC at 278-1007.)