I notice that many columnists in the technology arena like to write columns to project what will occur in the coming year. I hesitated, but decided after 500 milliseconds of thought that my opinions were probably as good as any of theirs, and perhaps better! Thus, here are Bob's Thoughts for the Coming Year and just some updates about ongoing topics.
* Wireless: Fagedaboudit! Wireless is the latest buzzword in the industry. Buzzwords (in the Bob lexicon) are the words used by start up companies to pry investment dollars from unwary venture capitalists. They envision replacing our current PCs with Internet connected cell phones, watches, and fashion jewelry. Wireless will not succeed until (a) the radio coverage is universal and (b) the screens are bigger. Even cell phones today don't afford total coverage, and the best of PDA (Personal Digital Assistant) screens, such as by Compaq or Palm, are woefully small for the job. Bottom line: sell short.
* Phone Calls On The Internet: This technology will continue to slowly become more prevalent, but don't expect to see any major changes this year. The rapid growth of broadband (cable and DSL) connections to the Internet will spur activity, but needed Quality of Service (QoS) hardware and infrastructure still a long time away. Bottom line: choppy performance, but fun. Try it.
* Digital Cameras: Gosh. My one and one half year old Kodak camera is now a dog. There is some really nice new stuff on the market, but prices are holding steady. The current consumer level camera still costs about $700-$1000 and will stay that way throughout the year. Don't expect to see higher resolution images - the current crop of 3.3 megapixel sensors are adequate, and any more pixels will create files so big they will be hard to handle and store. Most changes will be in usability.
The biggest news is in professional and prosumer cameras - prosumer cameras are those aimed towards the very high end of the consumer market. True digital SLR (Single Lens Reflex) cameras are beginning to appear. The Nikon D1 is apparently one spectacular camera, but the body alone costs $5,000. Keep an eye on the Canon EOS D30 - its body is only $3000. A nice compromise is the Olympus E-10, which is a true SLR but does not feature interchangeable lenses. It is very well rated and "only" costs about $1800 on the street.
* PCs: A price war is brewing. The insider opinion is that there are too many players in the marketplace to share the declining potential profits, and that two or more need to exit stage left. Biggies Gateway and Dell have already announced they will start a price war. I think this is good for the consumer and now may be the best time to buy.
The processor war momentum is definitely shifting to AMD. AMDs latest 1.2 GHz. processor coupled with new DDR (Dual Data Rate) memory is kicking Intel's butt. The new Intel P4 is barely faster than its predecessor and Intel's shift towards expensive Rambus memory may not have been a good move.
* Viruses: Folks, wake up and smell the smoke. The situation is BAD and getting WORSE. Anyone who doesn't back up his or her hard drive, and who doesn't have the latest and greatest virus and firewall protection is just asking for it. You have been warned!
Another area to monitor is free software. It used to be that developers put out free software just for the fun of it, or to gain experience before releasing their product formally. Now much of the free software is a way for companies to spy on your computer, or for them to deliver ads. Spyware is becoming a nasty term in the industry - programs that spy on what you do in order to collect consumer data. There are now programs (like virus checkers) that check for known spyware.
It's going to be an interesting year!
(Bob Seidel is a local computer consultant in the Southport / Oak Island area. You can visit his website at www.bobseidel.com or e-mail him at bsc@bobseidel.com).