Its not quite New Year's Eve yet, but let's see where I see the computer industry going next year. This past year has not been a year of very much innovation, and unfortunately I do not see this trend getting any better.
Processors will continue to get faster, but at a much reduced rate of acceleration. AMD's new 64-bit processors will certainly make an inroad into the server market, but that will have little effect on most individual PC users. Memory prices will be stable, but it's cheap enough now to afford lots of RAM for your PC. Hard drives will start the switch from today's parallel (EIDE) interface to the new serial interface (SATA); this will make hard drive systems a bit faster but not enough to create a major perceived difference to the end user. Capacities are already bigger than the average human could ever use, and so increased hard drive storage will be a hard sell for manufacturers.
I think the biggest change that you will see in the marketplace is the merchandising of PC packages by more traditional vendors. Wal-Mart is already beginning to sell its own brands of PCs, and you will see this trend continue. I am sure that the products themselves will be fine products, but I am concerned about service and support. Dell has found out the hard way that outsourcing support functions overseas does not work well; I think it would be difficult for the Wal-Mart and others to put an acceptable domestic support structure in place.
The software offerings will remain stagnant. It's been so long since a really new and exciting piece of software (what the industry calls a "killer ap") came along. I just keep updating the same old software that I use, and even then somewhat grudgingly as the new "features" barely justify the cost of upgrading. No change here in 2004. Ditto on web pages; new content, perhaps, but the presentation will remain the same.
Digital music hardware offerings have reached a plateau. There are lots on the market, but very little to differentiate the offerings by. Your basic choice is to buy a player with or without a hard drive - once you have made that determination, just buy one.
So, what is going to be new and refreshing? I think you will see the continuing demise of the traditional wall telephone. You will see a number of alternative offerings this coming year, all in what is called VOIP (voice over IP) or, in other words, telephone over the Internet. The important thing about VOIP is that there really is no difference in the hardware and software that supports the system between what were traditionally "local" vs. "long-distance" calls. As long as the government keeps its mitts off, you should see Internet telephone packages that offer all service for a flat rate.
The second whammy against the traditional telephone system will be the continued aggressive pricing by the cell phone companies. Many people now are completely abandoning their wall phones in favor of cell phones, and this trend will continue. However, using a cell phone to access the Internet will continue to be a dud. You just can't see enough on those itty-bitty screens to make it worthwhile. Even browsing on my PocketPC's screen is limited.
Digital cameras are just going to get better and better. In the past, really good quality digital cameras (professional or prosumer grade) were quite expensive, and the average camera was very much a point-and-shoot type. Now, quality lenses and processing firmware have become common in the consumer grade of cameras, and this trend will continue. Consumers still will want a high level of automation in their cameras, but want the cameras to be smarter and smarter. Cameras will be much better at auto-focusing (faster and more accurate) and have much better metering to ensure that the picture looks great under all conditions.
More thoughts on next year as the year wraps up.
Bob Seidel is a local computer consultant in the Southport / Oak Island area. You can visit his web site at www.bobseidel.com or e-mail questions or column ideas to him at bsc@bobseidel.com. For specific inquiries, please call Bob Seidel Consulting, LLC at 278-1007.